Research•Jan 19, 2026•8 min read
Weekly outlook: regime neutral, risk cap unchanged
Regime remains neutral. Risk caps stay in place until volatility narrows.
What changed
Volatility compression stalled while dispersion stayed elevated. Macro inputs are neutral with no decisive catalyst.
Why it matters for allocation
Neutral regimes call for smaller sizing and strict invalidations. Risk should not expand until volatility narrows.
What the model does
Exposure caps stay at 0.9x with a hard requirement for 3/3 consensus before new allocations.
What to do next
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