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Research/Jan 19, 2026/8 min read

Weekly outlook: regime neutral, risk cap unchanged

Regime remains neutral. Risk caps stay in place until volatility narrows.

regimeoutlookmodel

What changed

Volatility compression stalled while dispersion stayed elevated. Macro inputs are neutral with no decisive catalyst.

Why it matters for allocation

Neutral regimes call for smaller sizing and strict invalidations. Risk should not expand until volatility narrows.

What the model does

Exposure caps stay at 0.9x with a hard requirement for 3/3 consensus before new signal issuance.

What to do next

Review the full regime table and current context in Meridian.

Meridian Research

Research